Hope or... The Stockdale Paradox

Hope or... The Stockdale Paradox

Shionogi's Corona Drug Confirms Antiviral Effect (msn.com)


This is news about Shionogi's long-awaited new corona drug.

It's a hope in this situation. However, there is also the possibility that the drug may not be very effective, or that it may not be effective enough to prevent the declaration of a state of emergency or mumbo jumbo.

 It's famous.




 Stockdale's paradox.

 There's one above (quoted from above).


"As Stockdale said in one interview, POWs who clung to a false sense of optimism did not survive.

They said, 'We will be liberated by Christmas. Christmas came and they left.

Then they said, 'We will be released by Easter (in April). Easter came and went. Next came Thanksgiving, and then Christmas again. They were dying of disappointment.

If you believe that the Corona disaster will be over in a few weeks, and that after it is over, the world will be the same as it was before, then you are like the POWs who kept believing that they would be liberated at some point. It will lead to disappointment."


 End of quote


 So, the optimism that Shionogi's cure will overcome Corona is dangerous. optimism is dangerous.


 We have to focus on what we can do and what we can control, i.e., take thorough countermeasures against infectious diseases and telework as much as possible, although this may be difficult in some industries.


 I am glad to hear this news, but I would like to warn people not to be too optimistic. We should be careful not to fall into the trap of unjustified optimism.

 In general, there are many people who are suffering from mental problems, but it seems that many of them are down due to the lack of visibility of the future and a lot of gloating, rather than because of Corona.

 It's a cliché, but let's think about Stockdale's paradox once again.